http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

I'm sorry to be an ass, but could you please summarize for me, I've got a lot of work to do; not enough time to read everything.

Fuckin trinary systems anyways.

quote:

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1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

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Blah blah blah, crisis, we're in trouble, blah blah.

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An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

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No real news there.

Great so what's the point?

Crisis? Where? How?

i think it's just stating the obvious. Nothing really outstanding there, or anything worth worrying about.

IOB = nonevent

Nothing to worry about for anyone that has their wealth in nondollar currencies.

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Originally posted by Dark_Magneto:
Nothing to worry about for anyone that has their wealth in nondollar currencies.

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Like us europeans

It caught my attention mainly because it gives such a close and concrete date and because it meshes so nicely with my peak oil obsessive paranoia.

My prediction: It won't be the whole turd, but a small part of the shit will be hitting the fan before april.

Sorry for not summarizing in my original post LordShadow, very rude of me, but it was close to my bedtime and I wanted to get the message out.

I'm surprised at you guys, saying that the exchange rate doesn't matter for joe blow.

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"In the 1970s, not long after the collapse of the gold standard, the US agreed with Saudi Arabia that Opec oil should be traded in dollars in effect replacing the gold standard with the oil standard.

Since then, consecutive US governments have been able to print dollar bills and treasury bonds in order to paper over huge current account and budgetary deficits, last year's US current account deficit was $646 billion.

Needless to say, the current petrodollar system greatly benefits the US; it enables it to effectively control the world oil market as the dollar has become the fiat currency for international trade.

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From: http://tinyurl.com/b8px5

Take this how you want.

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The United States' crude inventories are running 9 per cent over a year ago, while petrol stockpiles are at their highest since 1999. But some analysts...

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From: http://tinyurl.com/rd8u2

This is great for everyone who isn't American (unless it somehow brings about an increase in the market price of oil).

Peak oil is like chasing a ghost.. first the collapse is coming during the summer, then katrina is supposed to do it, then winter, now march... im getting tired of it. It's time to place your bets.

EDIT: And if you think china et al are going to dump their reserve dollars just because of the IOB you are fucking stupid.

[This message has been edited by Real.PUA (edited 03-04-2006).]

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Originally posted by Real.PUA:
Peak oil is like chasing a ghost...

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I'm with you there. I was convinced that Katrina was "the keystone event" until gas went back down to $2, very disappointing. Maybe it isn't a bad thing that the world just keeps chugging along, this just gives us more time to prepare ourselves.

Keep in mind that just about every other world-changing event you can think of has a good chance of NOT happening during your lifetime. Everything from the seond coming of christ to global nuclear war to superflu epidemic to meteor impact has a good chance of NOT happening. Not so with peak oil, probability hardly enters into it at all. As they stand all the factors indicate drastic change is imminent. I don't see any of those factors changing do you?

Sure there's a vanishingly small chance that fusion, aliens or the discovery of a bunch of gargantuan oil fields could save us but these possibilities are hardly worth considering.

I was going to tell you to "keep the faith" but faith is stupid. Keep your eyes on the facts and draw your own conclusions. Also remember that drunk people survive severe car crashes more frequently, this is because they don't brace for impact. Don't anticipate, stay loose, be flexible.

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Originally posted by phantom_lord1983:

Like us europeans

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You guys actually stand to benefit quite handsomely.

And Re: Peak Oil, if people still have the luxury of considering it to be nothing more than chicken little, then all the better I say. Gives me more time to try to get my affairs in order (or in as much order as I can manage before the shit hits, which seems like it will be the case).

[This message has been edited by Dark_Magneto (edited 03-05-2006).]

Then stop bringing it up, unless you are trying to increase membership in your doomsday cult..

Aim - it's cool I'm just really busy these days. So far my understanding is that oil has been priced in US currency to this date and now it is going to be priced in Euro's.

Bad for US.

I see how that could change our economy greatly.


Hey anyone else here thinking about maybe putting together a booklet, a webpage, etc...
Something like the old Mother Earth news on how to "seriously" make your own items of convienience?
I have a CD of Mother Earth News archives, I mean those guys kicked ass! There were plans for building your own electric hybrid back in the 70's that got 75mpg.

I've been thinking along similar lines the past few weeks. Something like "The Hitchhikers Guide to Peak Oil" comes to mind. Hardware aside it'd just be an all-inclusive encyclopaedia of things that might be useful. The trouble with that is one never knows where to draw the line and you never really know what random fact or knowledge will end up saving your skin.

I love your idea, let's find out if there's anybody else collaborating along those lines and if there isn't let's be the first. I've been looking for an excuse to build a website for a while now.

That archive CD will be priceless, make copies and hide them.

Doomsday Cult, I like the sound of that. Dark_Magneto, how do I go about signing up?

Seriously, how do I get your guys' email without posting my own on here?

www.peakoil.com go read the forums (haven for the doomsday cult, although there are quite a few intelligent posters as well)... they have many threads about survival in a mad max world... check out the 'planning for the future forum'

I've been going there more and more lately (under the same screen name), I haven't explored that particular forum extensively (except for the GUN thread).

I was thinking a large collaborative effort pulling together all the pertinent info and then distributing it would be best. Something that would be massive (and massively useful) yet easy to download and disseminate.

Everything still looks peachy. So when you turn out to be wrong about the crash this month are you just going to postpone the prediction for the umpteenth time or reevaluate your beliefs?

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/gasolineprice.html

Gasoline prices have already started to rise. I don't know why, but I did read that inventories were high last month.
http://tinyurl.com/nosfu

High inventories usually suppresses price.

(googles)
Oh, here we go. http://tinyurl.com/lhu9b
That might explain it, be sure to read the bottom few paragraphs.

My uneducated and ill-informed opinion is that the world oil market is currently tighter than it's ever been. Something has got to give eventually and the chances are high that this will not happen spontaneously, SOME unusual even will initiate the rupture.

What Iran is doing is economic warfare.

Some other opinions: http://tinyurl.com/rsmxb http://tinyurl.com/ptxhh

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Originally posted by Aimrehtopyh:
[URL=http: //www.wtrg .com/daily /gasolinep rice.html] http://www .wtrg.com/ daily/gaso lineprice.html[/URL]

Gasoline prices have already started to rise.

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Well with in the way prices have been fluctuating for the past year. But there is an upward trend in prices---however, this does not spell armageddon.

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I don't know why, but I did read that inventories were high last month.
http://tinyurl.com/nosfu

High inventories usually suppresses price.

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Ummmm... As far as i can tell thats from February 2003...

quote:

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(googles)
Oh, here we go. http://tinyurl.com/lhu9b
That might explain it, be sure to read the bottom few paragraphs.

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Iran will obviously use its oil to influence the world, but in the end its all bark and no bite. Iran cannot afford to stop exporting oil...The country depends on that revenue.

quote:

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My uneducated and ill-informed opinion is that the world oil market is currently tighter than it's ever been.

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It's tight, but not tighter than its ever been. Even if it were tighter than it was in the 1973-1974 embargo it does not mean the world economy will collapse. Recession maybe, collapse no.

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Something has got to give eventually and the chances are high that this will not happen spontaneously, SOME unusual even will initiate the rupture.

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Why does something have to give? And if something does give why would this lead to a collapse of civilization?

quote:

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What Iran is doing is economic warfare.

Some other opinions: http://tinyurl.com/rsmxb http://tinyurl.com/ptxhh

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SO iran is flexing their economic muscles. Good for them. The US economy is extremely robust. Just because Iran starts selling their oil in euros does not mean foreign banks will stop investing in the US or will drop the dollar as a reserve currency. Iran is a large exporter of oil, but they arent the biggest.

Please don't think I'm trying to convince you, because I know that's hopless. I'll just explain my reasoning.

This weeks gas price hike might be the result of anticipatory speculation on the part of people with more inside info than I do, if that's the case then what event might they be anticipating? Or it could just be normal market fluctuation or because of that one oil refinery in the virgin islands shutting down. Armageddon? I didn't say we'd all be dead within a week of the IOB's first trade, I'm just predicting that it'll have a catalytic effect on an already panic-prone market that depends on a politically volatile region.

February 2003... I'll be damned, oops, how embarrassing.
Fresher info shows that gas inventories are about average, but crude inventories are pretty high.

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Iran will obviously use its oil to influence the world, but in the end its all bark and no bite. Iran cannot afford to stop exporting oil...The country depends on that revenue.

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They aren't going to stop the flow of oil. In a way we're currently the middleman for international oil trade, cutting us out of that loop will deprive us of profits, power and insight. We're also the biggest junkies on the block for the stuff and any price hike or availability problems will cause us discomfort.

Don't forget, Iran has Sunburn.
200 kiloton nuclear payload, range 100 miles, flies at mach 2.2! More info. How wide are the straits of hormuz? 40-50 miles? Thus far, Islamic extremists have shown an amazing ability to hit us at just the right place and time.

How do you define tight? I'm under the impression that there is not one drop of reserve capacity anywhere in the world right now, has this ever happened before? If it has, please enlighten me. "Reserve capacity" gives one the ability to suppress price by increasing production, Saudi Arabia admitted to losing control of the price of crude last July. Yes, the Saudis claim they'll be able to ramp up in a few months but I have my doubts.

Using the term recession paints a picture of eventual recovery. It's hard to argue that oil will continue to be as readily available as it was in the past, demand is rising like mad and I think we both agree that supply rates are set to decline in 0-10 years. So if our primary fuel source will rapidly become less available and more expensive as time goes on what will be our mechanism for economic recovery? Perhaps the decline will be slow enough to not qualify as "collapse", but does that mean my childrens long-term prospects will be rosy?

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Why does something have to give? And if something does give why would this lead to a collapse of civilization?

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I guess it's possible that global economies, infrastructure, behaviors, populations, governments, and sundry other structures could change shape quickly enough to weather such tension without fracturing. /sarcasm

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SO iran is flexing their economic muscles. Good for them. The US economy is extremely robust. Just because Iran starts selling their oil in euros does not mean foreign banks will stop investing in the US or will drop the dollar as a reserve currency. Iran is a large exporter of oil, but they arent the biggest.

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The ability of other major players to use something other than the dollar to buy their most vital import undeniably undermines the usefulness of the dollar. That's just one factor. This would be true even if the liquid that powers the American economic juggernaut were flowing fast and cheap. I could be wrong, but I think that international confidence in our clout to back the dollar is diminishing every day. Hmm, usefulness and confidence: aren't those some of the main determinants of the value of a currency? http://tinyurl.com/mv7cg (I could have found a better link, but it's naptime)
Will we try to print our way out of debt? Overample supply of a currency also decreases its value.

edit:format problem and an oversized link

[This message has been edited by Aimrehtopyh (edited 03-16-2006).]

quote:

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This weeks gas price hike might be the result of anticipatory speculation on the part of people with more inside info than I do, if that's the case then what event might they be anticipating? Or it could just be normal market fluctuation or because of that one oil refinery in the virgin islands shutting down. Armageddon? I didn't say we'd all be dead within a week of the IOB's first trade, I'm just predicting that it'll have a catalytic effect on an already panic-prone market that depends on a politically volatile region.

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A small rise in the price of gas could also be the result of increased demand, problems with refining capacity, or simply pure speculation. There is no evidence the support the notion that some mysterious 'event' is being anticipated by people with insider knowledge. How exactly is the IOB going to have a catalytic effect on the market? Will it lead to oil being MORE EXPENSIVE?

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They aren't going to stop the flow of oil. In a way we're currently the middleman for international oil trade, cutting us out of that loop will deprive us of profits, power and insight. We're also the biggest junkies on the block for the stuff and any price hike or availability problems will cause us discomfort.

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Then we agree on that point. If Iran chooses to take the Euro instead of the dollar that's their choice, but the Sauds will continue to sell oil in dollars. Again, how will the IOB lead to a price hike for the USA, we don't buy oil directly from Iran as it is.

quote:

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How do you define tight? I'm under the impression that there is not one drop of reserve capacity anywhere in the world right now, has this ever happened before? If it has, please enlighten me. "Reserve capacity" gives one the ability to suppress price by increasing production, Saudi Arabia admitted to losing control of the price of crude last July. Yes, the Saudis claim they'll be able to ramp up in a few months but I have my doubts.

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And how did you come to this impression? No one is allowed to audit the Saud reserves so we simply do not know. I could equally speculate that they are downplaying their reserves to profit off of high oil prices. I could also speculate that because many potential oil rigs are not being built, that the major oil companies believe there is reserve capacity in the middle east. The "market" still believes that there is a large chance oil prices could come down.

quote:

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Using the term recession paints a picture of eventual recovery. It's hard to argue that oil will continue to be as readily available as it was in the past, demand is rising like mad and I think we both agree that supply rates are set to decline in 0-10 years. So if our primary fuel source will rapidly become less available and more expensive as time goes on what will be our mechanism for economic recovery? Perhaps the decline will be slow enough to not qualify as "collapse", but does that mean my childrens long-term prospects will be rosy?

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Yes, demand for oil is rising and if prices get too high the demand will fall. But higher oil prices will lead to new technologies to extract conventional and nonconventional oil, and lead to investment in alternative energies. Oil supply decline != decline in economy. I agree that high oil prices will very likely lead to a recession, but that does not mean alternatives wont be used.

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The ability of other major players to use something other than the dollar to buy their most vital import undeniably undermines the usefulness of the dollar. That's just one factor. This would be true even if the liquid that powers the American economic juggernaut were flowing fast and cheap. I could be wrong, but I think that international confidence in our clout to back the dollar is diminishing every day. Hmm, usefulness and confidence: aren't those some of the main determinants of the value of a currency? http://tinyurl.com/mv7cg (I could have found a better link, but it's naptime)
Will we try to print our way out of debt? Overample supply of a currency also decreases its value.

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Will all expoters of oil switch to the Euro or is it only Iran (and possibly Venezuela)? Only a fraction of the oil on the market will be available in euros, not all of it. So yes this undermines the dollar slightly and perhaps confidence in america's military power are diminishing as well. But the american economy has still been growing, the fed could raise interests rates, and we still lead the world in cutting edge research. I'm not a currency expert, but I suspect there is more to the dollar than just oil and military.

As for the M3 data, I agree its suspicious but that's also just pure speculation...also why did the US gov stopped auditing fort knox (a long time ago)? Maybe we should see what the PhD educated economists have said about it. You can buy into a conspiracy theory or you can take a parsimonious approach. What is the simplest explanation? Generally speaking, parsimony better represents reality.

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Iran is the world�s fourth largest oil producer and the second biggest exporter within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The country, which also holds the world�s second largest gas reserves after Russia, has planned to put an end to the greenback monopoly on oil trades by expediting efforts to establish an oil bourse by April.
Once the much-publicized oil bourse is established, the long-sought objective of replacing the US dollar with the euro in OPEC transactions will come one major step closer to reality.
The oil bourse, which will be established as envisaged in the Fourth Five-Year Plan (2005-2010), has received support from both the Parliament and the government in Iran. It will enable oil-rich Iran to regulate prices at home without having to follow other countries� dollar-pegged trading system.

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From http://tinyurl.com/nk4ds

Oh, well...

So what's new?

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Originally posted by Real.PUA:
It's tight, but not tighter than its ever been.

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There is zero spare capacity. That makes it not only tighter than it's ever been, but as tight as it gets. It's all scarcity issues from here on out.

An oil market with no spare capacity is bad enough since the slightest disruption jacks the price up overnight, but it's nothing compared to what happens when the resource enters a state of ever-increasing scarcity.