Quote:
Originally Posted by mrgrape2
what do u think about buying stocks for oil and gold right now?
also as an 18yr old, what is the best way i should be living my life to be able to maximumly achieve financial gain, such as holding a job , no loans etc.
|
I don't recommend any inexperienced speculator or investor to get into the commodity game, in short, it's above your head. But I think now is an excellent time to consider investments in solid companies. And the best way to be living your life is to save, save, save. Where you put your money is your decision, and there are different growth rates applied depending on this decision. If you were to put it into a savings account, you might make <1%, pretty lame. A money market account like ING, Fidelity mySmart, at al. typically have higher rates and can be used as a checking account. Alternatively you could invest it, possibly netting higher returns through stock growth and dividends. As for investing...
Investing in common stocks requires a little bit of vocab knowledge, it may seem intimidating at first, but with a little studying (even wikipedia) you can become more comfortable with the lingo and decipher some of the more intermediate investing strategies. If you're serious about investing, I recommend reading "The Intelligent Investor" By Benjamin Graham. Graham is a famous investor/teacher/and business man. He was a board member of GEIKO, professor at Columbia, and taught Warren Buffett (most times the richest man in the world). Graham gives helpful insights into the world of investing. I can upload the .pdf if anyone wants it.
Before we get started, let's define
investment. (per Graham's definition in
The Intelligent Investor)
Investment: through thorough analysis promises safety of principle and an adequate return.
This means that in order to consider a perceived investment as a true investment, it must have little risk, and high expected rate of return.
Anything else is speculation. And try to avoid this.
Anyway, in order to find an appropriate investment, there are two main ways to go from here.
[1] Technical Analysis
[2] Fundamental Analysis
(We won't even mention Quantitative Analysis)
Know that some people find the results they look for using technical analysis, these are generally traders. Traders, different from you or me, watch the market daily and make large volume trades to make pennies on the dollar that in these large volumes, equate to large profits. This is certainly a feasible approach even for a long-term portfolio, but I don't recommend this as it requires a great deal of arguably pointless knowledge. Buffett built his wealth on the principles of Fundamental analysis, and it just so happens, it is a very common-sense approach that is not difficult to grasp.
The idea behind fundamental analysis is such: The market is wrong. The way it prices stocks (and therefore, companies) is not accurate since the market is so strongly influenced by the whims of daily traders. Since this is true, it means a price drop can occur on a company who saw no real decrease in value. This means the company can be had for a bargain.
How to make money using value investing principles:
- Research & Find undervalued companies
- Invest a portion of your portfolio
- Wait for the market prices to correct itself
- Cash out/hold longer
Your goal as an 18 year old kid should not be to make crazy money in a few months, this will more than likely end in failure. You should have a 5-10 year horizon on your investments. The aim here is to allow the market prices to better represent the company you're holding. To do this, you'll need to find companies with a large discrepancy between the market price (the price at which you can buy the stock for) and it's
intrinsic value. Now there are many ways to calculate intrinsic value, but all of the goals are the same--The idea is to price the companies shares yourself, and determine it's "true" value. There are many ways of doing this, and I prefer Graham's method as described in his books.
To save time, I'll cut to...
The Valuation of a Stock
Graham used this formula:
Intrinsic Value = E(2R x 8.5)(4.4Y)
where,
E = Annualized earnings, past 5 years (or less/more)
R = Earnings growth rate, next 5 years
8.5 = A value Graham used for the P/E for company with no growth prospects
4.4 = Required Rate of Return for company w/o growth prospects
Y=30yr. AAA Corporate bond yield
This guy gives an excellent explanation,
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by www.grahaminvestor.com
The value of 8.5 appears to be the P/E ratio of a stock that has zero
growth. It is not clear from the text how Graham arrived at this figure, but it
is likely it represents the y-intercept of a normal distribution of a series of
various P/E values plotted against corresponding growth figures.
Graham's formula takes no account of prevailing interest rates; at the time
he last updated the chapter, around 1962, the yield on AAA Corporate Bonds
was around 4.4%. We can adjust the formula by normalizing it for current
bond yields by multiplying by a factor of 4.40/{AAA Corporate Bond Yield}. Bond yields
can be found on Yahoo!
Lets take a real-life example, using IBM. According to Yahoo!, the expected
growth rate for IBM over the next 5 years is 10% per annum (note data is
only available for 5 years ahead rather than the 7-10 years Graham states, but
this should not make a significant difference). EPS for IBM over the last 12
months is $4.95. Taking these values and plugging in the 20 year AA Corporate
bond yield of 5.76% (AA Bond yields are higher than AAA so will give a more
conservative estimate of IV) in our adjustment gives:
Intrinsic Value = 4.95 x (8.5 + (2 x 10) x (4.40/5.76) = $107.77
IBM is currently trading at around $91, so it is currently slightly undervalued.
|
It's perfectly okay if you don't understand this right away, it uses some foreign vocab, but it's nothing too difficult, I promise you that. I would read as much as you can, as those who don't know the system get played by the system.
[I have to go, I'll edit this later]