Quote:
Originally Posted by XtomJames
The simplest answer is that probability and improbability are proportional to one another.
If you have 100% chance of hitting face down and 0% chance of hitting tails down then you have an equated improbability. If you have a 75% chance of hitting face down you have a 25% chance of hitting tails down.
so find the probability of one action and use the proportionality method to determine the improbability.
|
They're not proportional; they just add up to the same thing (1). Which is quite different.
P(X) + P(not X) = 1
Note that P(shit) = probability of event shit occurring
Also, it's usually easier to find the probability of X than not X, as not X usually encompasses more possibilities. For instance, it's easy to get the probability of all heads, but getting the probability of NOT all heads is a bitch because you have to deal with getting all heads except for one tails, all heads except for two tails, and so on.
In response to the original question, I like the answer in the first post best. Assuming event X does not influence event Y and vice versa (i.e. they're independent), it follows that:
P(X & Y) = P(X) * P(Y)
You can think of it like P(X) amount of the time event X will occur, and within those instances (hence the *) event Y will occur P(Y) amount of the time.